Former Club of Rome member predicts civilizational collapse: 2015-2020


Perhaps the “doomers” are correct? However, as Dmitri Orlov points out below, once collapse begins, mathematical models of what happens next also collapse. since their assumptions dissolve.

And remember, as the old top-heavy, resource-depleting system crashes, we can feel, in our bones and hearts, the new regenerative, open-sourced, networking, bottom-up natural connectedness — with each other, with the Earth — beginning to surge . . .

(Are we approaching “the singularity“?)

And remember Joanna Macy: No matter what happens, it’s “no big deal.” Breathe. And above all, stay awake!

Dennis Meadows: Collapse Is Inevitable 2015-2020

June 3, 2014

energyskeptic via Keith


Dennis Meadows is a co-author of The Limits to Growth. In 1972, the team of 66 scientists he assembled for the original Limits to Growth study concluded the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

Dmitry Orlov on Dennis Meadow’s presentation at the Age Of Limits conference 2014: “Dennis had agreed to present at this conference reluctantly. He has retired from Club of Rome discussions, and has found more cheerful uses for his time. But he seemed happy with the outcome, saying that this is the first time he faced an audience that did not need convincing. Instead, he took the time to add some details that I think are crucially important, among them the fact that his WORLD3 model is only accurate until the peaks are reached. Once the peaks occur (between 2015 and 2020) all bets are off: past that point, the model’s predictive ability is not to be relied on because the assumptions on which it relies will no longer be valid.”

At the 2014 Age of Limits conference he also said that in 1972 we had reached about 85% of Earth’s carrying capacity and today we are about 125%, and every month we delay in getting back within limits erodes Earth’s further ability to tolerate us. “The reason we don’t have a response to climate change,” he said, “is not because we don’t have better models. It’s because people don’t care about climate change.” That may be our epitaph.

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